Free agents that make sense for the Phillies 1.0

During the upcoming offseason, we here at TGP will be taking a regular look at some free agents that make sense for the Philadelphia Phillies. We will try to consider cost, age and position as well as general suitability for the squad.

We will also consider the impact on the competition equalization tax, but it is difficult to estimate these figures specifically before salaries are determined in arbitration. As things currently stand, the Phillies will have an estimated payroll of around $241 million in 2025, which is right at the first luxury tax threshold. Exceeding that number by at least $40 million puts the Phillies in the group that moves their first-round draft pick back ten spots. Still, we expect Dave Dombrowski to be operating on an unrestricted payroll, as Matt Gelb recently noted in a piece for The Athletic.

Without further delay, here is the first group of free agents that make sense for the Phillies.

Juan Soto, OF

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

That’s the most obvious thing. Soto is only 25 years old and has already established himself as one of the best hitters in the game. In his first season with the Yankees, Soto hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and 119 RBIs and will likely be an MVP finalist. Soto is widely considered the player with the best eye in the sport and his career on-base percentage of .421 is the 19th highest in MLB history among players with 900 games played. Even though he is younger than Alec Bohm, Byrson Stott and Brandon Marsh, to name just a few.

Soto, a Scott Boras client, will enter the market as the best player available by a wide margin and will likely receive a contract worth around $500 million or so. Signing Soto would almost certainly give the Phillies at least $40 million over the $241 million CBT threshold, thereby hurting their draft ability. Regardless, Soto is a perfect fit for the Phillies’ lineup, as he provides a sharp contrast to their chasing tendencies and would blow their downward-looking championship window wide open.

The problem is that these things apply to almost every team in baseball. Soto is widely expected to stay in New York, either as a Yankee or across town to the Mets. The Phillies will be involved, but they face an uphill battle to sign the young superstar. However, they have some factors that help their case as they are willing to spend from ownership, they employ a trio of former teammates in Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber, they currently employ Soto’s favorite hitting coach Kevin Long and they have a strong one Relationship with Boras. It remains to be seen how much these factors will actually influence Soto’s decision.

Alex Bregman, 3B

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Many in Philadelphia believe the Phillies will look to at least one of Bohm, Stott or Marsh in their attempts to improve an offense that has faltered in three straight postseasons. Bregman is only fit if Bohm is the underdog in this group.

Bregman, Aaron Nola’s former roommate at LSU, is a two-time World Series champion with the Houston Astros and will be 31 at the start of next season. Overall, he had a decent season, finishing with a .768 OPS and 26 HRs. Bregman got off to a staggeringly slow start, hitting just .219 with a .652 OPS in 55 games through the end of May. For comparison, Nick Castellanos hit .210 with a .610 OPS in 58 games through May in his well-documented slow start. However, like Castellanos, Bregman turned his season around when the calendar turned to June. From June 1 through the end of the season, Bregman slashed .284/.337/.500 in 90 games.

Despite this increase, Bregman still finished his career with lows in OPS and walk percentage. Over the course of his career, Bregman has been the type of hitter the Phillies need, someone who can work, count and not chase pitches out of the zone. However, its recent trends suggest that these strengths may be fading. His walk percentage dropped dramatically from 12.7% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024. This is accompanied by an increasing chase percentage (22.2%) and an increased amount of contact on the pitches outside the zone (75.2%) . That higher pursuit rate would still be among the Phillies’ best, but contact outside the zone is concerning. There is a possibility that Bregman is at the beginning of a sharp decline.

Spotrac predicts Bregman, another Boras client, will get a roughly four-year, $120 million contract. That would put him through his age-34 season at $30 million per season. That would also put the Phillies right at the $281 million draft penalty threshold, with little to no room to make other moves.

Tanner Scott, R.P

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The most shocking part of the Phillies’ early postseason exit was the complete implosion of their bullpen. A unit that featured two All-Stars and a big acquisition at the trade deadline, as well as an emerging performer in Orion Kerkering, was completely under fire by the Mets, giving up 17 runs in 12.2 IP with 4 homers. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are both free agents and the safe bet is that one of them will return with a new contract. But perhaps the Phillies want to move on from both, or they may look to move on from José Alvarado, who had a shaky season and is due $9 million in the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2025.

Either way, Tanner Scott would be a great acquisition to rejuvenate the bullpen. Scott’s 1.75 ERA was the sixth-best of all MLB relievers and he appeared in 72 games with 22 saves and 11 holds. The 30-year-old started the All-Star season for the first time and was the closer for the Miami Marlins before being traded to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline in order to acquire a large selection of prospects. He continued to perform well in San Diego while primarily serving as a setup man for closer Robert Suárez.

The biggest downside to Scott is that he tends to walk a lot of batters. His BB rating of 12.8 was the fourth highest among all reserve players with at least 60 appearances. His career-best walk rate of 7.8% in 2023 was likely a mirage, as it was the first and only time in his career that it was below 11%. Scott also struck out a pedestrian 28.6% of batters in 2024, although he had elite strikeout stuff, as evidenced by his 33.9 K% in 2023, which was ninth-best among relievers in 2023.

Scott’s market value is projected by Spotrac to be $65 million over 4 years. The left-hander has been one of the league’s best relievers over the last two seasons, but doesn’t have much of a track record beyond that. He also doesn’t have the save numbers that other recent players like Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz have had. Whichever team signs him would hope that he continues his upward trend into his 30s and regains his strikeout numbers to offset his high walk rate. It also remains to be seen if Scott prefers to be a closer like he was in Miami or if he’s ready to be a setup man again like he was in San Diego.