Big Ten title race update after Oregon beats Ohio State: Tiebreaker scenarios with nine mixed teams

When the Big Ten decided to move to an 18-team league with no divisions, a truly chaotic system emerged. There are only two spots available in the Big Ten Championship Game, with 18 teams vying for them. Many of the top candidates will not compete against each other. It’s conceivable that half a dozen teams with exactly the same conference record are waiting on pins and needles for the tiebreaker.

With that in mind, we decided to take a look at the state of the Big Ten race as we reach the halfway point of the regular season. There are only three undefeated teams left in the Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State suffered its first loss against Ducks on Saturday.

Most likely, a team with one loss will reach the Big Ten title game. Right now, there are six teams with a 2-1 Big Ten record trying to compete for attention. Many exciting duels will shape the course of the race.

As a summary here how the Big Ten’s tiebreaker procedures will work in 2024:

1. The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record.
2. The equal teams will be compared on record with common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams are compared based on their record against common opponents, from best conference record to worst conference record.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on their opponents’ conference win percentage.
5. The team will be selected based on the highest ranked team rating score provided by SportSource Analytics.
6. The team is selected at random.

Needless to say, in an 18-team conference race, there will be some truly crazy battles to get into the Big Ten Championship Game (December 7 in Indianapolis on CBS). Here’s how we put each team at a disadvantage early in the season.

The undefeated

Oregon: The Ducks are undoubtedly in the lead for the Big Ten title after shocking Ohio State in Eugene. The win against the Buckeyes gives Oregon an important tiebreaker heading into the home stretch. Additionally, the Ducks will not play a single team ranked in the top 20 for the remainder of the season. Even if there is a stupid loss along the way, it’s unlikely to upset Oregon. A spot in the Big Ten title game is likely assured.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions survived an overtime road battle against USC to reach the goal 6:0 and remain unbeaten. Once again, the path to the Big Ten title lies with Ohio State, where Penn State plays on November 2nd. Otherwise, it’s a hodgepodge of mid-sized Big Ten teams from Minnesota to Wisconsin. An 11-1 record should be the foundation, it just depends on what loss occurs.

Indiana: There is no coincidence. Halfway through the college football regular season, Indiana is ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings. The Hoosiers are 3-0 in Big Ten play and have won every game by at least two touchdowns, including a road trip to Northwestern on Oct. 5. The first big test comes this week when the Hoosiers host Nebraska in a noon game. If Indiana wins big, the schedule will be interesting. No. 24 Michigan doesn’t look scary without the passing game. Purdue, Washington and Michigan State are mid- or lower-tier teams. It’s really that one game against Ohio State. And hey, if Ohio State or Penn State loses another game on the road, 11-1 could still be enough to reach Indianapolis.

The competitors

Ohio state: The Buckeyes fall a step back after a devastating one-point road loss to Oregon. While Ohio State still has a good chance of getting to the Big Ten title game, the road ahead is fraught with complications. A road game against No. 4 Penn State on Nov. 2 is daunting. No. 24 Indiana no longer looks like a pushover. And then, of course, there’s the emotional rivalry game against No. 24 Michigan to close out the year. Behind Oregon, Ohio State is the most likely runner-up, but the path is now much more complicated.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes dropped a whopping 40 points to Washington this week and won’t play a single ranked team for the rest of the year. In fact, Wisconsin and Nebraska are the only opponents that will even host a bowl game. A tiebreaker loss to Ohio State makes the road more difficult, but the Hawkeyes should be competitive with almost everyone else.

Illinois: The Illini have a two-touchdown loss to Penn State on their record, but could turn their fortunes around by going on the road and beating Oregon on Oct. 26. A win would give Illinois a head-to-head tiebreaker And possibly the best direct win, which would be invaluable in a tiebreaker situation. A home game against Michigan this weekend (3:30 p.m., CBS) is an absolutely crucial game.

So you’re saying there’s a chance

Michigan: The blessing is that the Wolverines are completely in control of their destiny to get back into the Big Ten title race. The curse? That’s because they have to play everyone. Michigan has No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 19 Indiana and No. 23 Illinois on the list. Three of the four games are away. Threading the needle is probably too difficult, but the record is still 2-1.

Nebraska: To find a path to Indianapolis, you would have to beat undefeated teams Indiana, Ohio State, USC and Iowa on the road. If they can do that, the Cornhuskers would have a very strong chance of making it. At the same time, this is a difficult question. Reaching the first bowl game since 2016 is cause for celebration.

Wisconsin: Don’t look now, but Wisconsin has flipped a switch since the loss to USC. Running back Tawee Walker increased the Badgers’ rushing game to 292 yards over the past two weeks as Wisconsin defeated Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 94-13. The upcoming games against Oregon and Penn State likely shut Wisconsin out of Indianapolis, but even crazier things have happened.

Look from the outside in

• Rutgers: Unfortunately, the good vibes left the building after a 42-7 loss to Wisconsin dropped the Scarlet Knights to 1-2 in Big Ten play. There are still winnable games ahead of us, but losing to mid-major teams Nebraska and Wisconsin isn’t a good sign.
• USC: The Trojans have lost three Big Ten games by a total of 13 points. Unfortunately, everyone still counts.
• Minnesota: The Gophers pushed Michigan to the limit, defeating USC and outlasting UCLA. PJ Fleck can now run for mayor of Los Angeles, but upcoming games against Illinois and Penn State make it an unlikely path.
• Washington: Beating Michigan by 10 points was a really nice moment for the program. Unfortunately, it might be the show’s best moment of the season.
  
• Northwest: After starting the season extremely poorly, a 27-point win over Maryland helped get things back on track.
• State of Michigan: The Spartans’ last two games were against Oregon and Ohio State and they lost 69-17 overall. It’s difficult to find three more wins to reach a bowl.

Fresh air and exercise

These teams are a combined 0-10 in conference play and have three combined games within one score against Big Ten competition. The good news is that these three schools can compete academically with anyone in the conference.