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ESPN FPI updates teams’ chances of getting to the dance after Week 7

ESPN FPI updates teams’ chances of getting to the dance after Week 7

Notre Dame’s 49-7 victory over Stanford was just a small part of college football history in Week 7. Sure, the Irish reached 5-1 as their season reached the halfway point, but there was still a lot happening other and influenced the race for the 12-team College Football Playoff.

ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its numbers on Sunday morning, and Notre Dame’s chances of securing a playoff spot increased significantly. We watched this early Sunday from a Notre Dame-specific perspective, but now want to examine each team’s chances of making the dance.

Below are the updated odds to reach the College Football Playoff according to FPI. Any team that has a greater than 10% chance will be considered.

The Oregon Duck mascot celebrates a win over Ohio State on Saturday

The Oregon Ducks crowd surf after the football team defeated Ohio State at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Any team with a 10% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff after Week 7, according to ESPN FPI odds.

26. UNLV: 11.2%
25. Tulane: 11.4%
24. James Madison: 13.5%
23. Missouri: 15.0%
22. Washington State: 16.8%
21. Pittsburgh: 18.6%
20. Ole Miss: 23.6%
19. Kansas State: 24.1%
18th Army: 24.6%
17. LSU: 26.4%
16. SMU: 28.2%
15. BYU: 32.7%
14. Texas A&M: 32.8%
13. Clemson: 44.6%
12. Tennessee: 46.2%
11. Boise State: 46.5%
10. Indiana: 47.3%
9. Iowa State: 53.2%
8. Notre Dame: 57.4%
7. Georgia: 68.4%
6. Alabama: 69.9%
5. Miami: 73.2%
4. Penn State: 75.2%
3. Ohio State: 81.0%
2. Oregon: 84.3%
1. Texas: 95.9%

Nick Shepkowski’s summary:

Texas players celebrate a dominant win over Oklahoma

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Silas Bolden (11) and Texas Longhorns defensive back Xavier Filsaime (21) celebrate a touchdown in the third quarter during the Red River Rivalry football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the University of Texas Longhorns at Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas , TX Saturday, October 12, 2024. / Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I get annoyed when I turn on a show or game and see the ESPN FPI odds on the scroll at the bottom of the screen as each upcoming game is displayed. I don’t think this is perfect by any means. For example, the computer clearly doesn’t have a formula to explain Ole Miss’ inability to throw in passes with consistency or give sensible play-calling in overtime.

However, the AP and Coaches polls literally mean nothing anymore. The College Football Playoff Committee prepares the rankings and does not take into account what the AP poll says. I find this infinitely more interesting than the far outdated two weekly polls that come out before the season.

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