Bowl Predictions: Ohio State remains the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff field, while Iowa State finishes in the top four

Before we get into this week’s changes to the weekly bowl predictions, let’s address a change you may have been expecting. I still have Ohio State as the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff predictions because the Buckeyes’ loss to Oregon on Saturday was actually already included in the predictions. I’m confident the Buckeyes will top the table and get revenge on the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis, making each of them 12-1. Therefore, Ohio State would receive the first round as the conference winner.

The only change to this week’s projected top four is Iowa State replacing Utah as Big 12 champion after the Utes lost 27-19 at Arizona State on Friday night. Star QB Cam Rising returned for the Utes but wasn’t strong enough in the loss.

Utah, on the other hand, not only was eliminated from the CFP projections for a chance at a bye, the Utes were eliminated entirely. Undefeated BYU replaced them and finished at No. 9. The two will play each other on November 9th.

Utah is not yet out of the conference race. Although the Utes are two games behind co-leaders BYU, Iowa State and Texas Tech, only a third of the conference schedule has been played. There’s still a long way to go, but Utah’s margin for error is gone.

If things really go south in the Big 12, Boise State could get a bye as one of the four top-ranked conference champions. The assumption is that the byes would go to the power conference champions, but being a Power Four Conference champion is by no means a requirement.

Teams in this week’s bubble include Iowa, Kansas State, LSU, Missouri, Notre Dame, SMU, Tennessee and Utah.

Quarterfinals

January 1st	sugar bowl New Orleans	(1) Texas vs. (8/9) winner
January 1st	Rose bowl Pasadena, California.	(2) Ohio State vs. (7/10) Winner
January 1st	Peach peel Atlanta	(4) Iowa State vs. (5/12) winner
Dec 31st	Fiesta Bowl Glendale, Arizona.	(3) Miami vs. (6/11) winner

First round

December 20th or 21st	Autzen Stadium Eugene, Ore.	(5) Oregon vs. (12) Boise State	(4)Miami
December 20th or 21st	Beaver Stadium State College, Pennsylvania.	(8) Penn State vs. (9) BYU	(1) Texas
December 20th or 21st	Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, Ala.	(6) Alabama vs. (11) Texas A&M	(3)Utah
December 20th or 21st	Sanford Stadium Athens, Georgia,	(7) Georgia vs. (10) Clemson	(2) Ohio State

There are two big games in the SEC next week that could shake up the CFP picture. Georgia visits Texas to stay in the conference race. The Bulldogs already have a loss to Alabama, and it will be difficult to see a path to the SEC title when they have two losses and no tiebreaker against the Longhorns or Crimson Tide. Georgia still has games at Ole Miss and also at home against Tennessee.

The Volunteers also want to compete in the SEC race when they host Alabama. Their loss to Arkansas really hurts because even with a win against the Tide, Tennessee still has to visit Georgia late in the season. Now the Vols need to win at least one of those games to make it to the CFP. I don’t expect any 9-3 teams in the CFP this season.

For the first time in at least a few years, I have no teams under .500 in the bowl predictions. The 2021 season was the last time the bowl roster was released without teams under .500.

Don’t see your team? Checkout Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.