College Football Playoff Round for Week 8: Projected Top 4 Seeds, First Round Matchups, Bubble Teams

Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey met off the field this week to discuss this conference’s role in the future of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

On the field, the chaos between the two conferences continues. No. 3 Oregon beat No. 2 Ohio State 32-31, and No. 4 Penn State defeated USC 33-30 in a pair of realignment-induced thrillers that upended the Big Ten’s pecking order. The Ducks, Buckeyes and Nittany Lions remain in our playoff prediction, but Oregon has a first-round bye and Penn State and Ohio State have home games in the first round.

BENDER: Dillon Gabriel extends Ryan Day’s struggles against top-five teams

Who would have thought that Texas would be the only – and impressive – undefeated player in the new-look SEC? The Longhorns defeated No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3 before another top-five showdown against No. 5 Georgia in Week 8. No. 7 Alabama retains its spot and No. 13 LSU advances after a dramatic 26-23 overtime win over No. 9 Ole Miss. No. 8 Tennessee is now up in the air after a 23-17 win over Florida. Watch for this change to continue into week 8.

Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. This is what it looks like after week 7:

Conscripted: BYU, LSU

Dropped out: Ole Miss, Tennessee

Projected byes for the first round of the College Football Playoff

No. 1 Texas (6-0, SEC champions)

Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry under Steve Sarkisian, leading to another blockbuster matchup against Georgia in Week 8. Quinn Ewers (20 of 29, 199 yards, TD, INT) will once again be under a lot of pressure, where he has already been at his best. The Longhorns are averaging 43.2 points per game and allowing 6.3 points per game.

No. 2 Oregon (6-0, Big Ten champion)

The Ducks are in second place after a thrilling win over Ohio State, a signature Big Ten victory for Dan Lanning. Dillon Gabriel enjoyed his best game in conference play with 341 passing yards, 32 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. The Ducks are coming off a top-five win and are in a great position to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. There could be a rematch with the Buckeyes, but for now Oregon is at the top of its new conference.

No. 3 Miami (6-0, ACC champions)

Miami had a bye week — which is timely after a dramatic 39-38 win over Cal on Oct. 5. Cam Ward leads an offense that leads the FBS with 583.8 yards per game, and the Hurricanes lead the ACC in total defense (282.5 ypg.). Clemson is close in the ACC race, but these teams aren’t playing in the regular season. Miami has another road test at Louisville in Week 8.

No. 4 Iowa State (6-0, Big 12 champion)

It’s a matchup between Iowa State and BYU as the undefeated teams in the Big 12 were eliminated, but the Cyclones won a prove-it game on the road against West Virginia. Carson Hansen (20-96, 3 TDs) was the hot hand in the backfield and the defense forced two turnovers. Iowa State is playing four of its last six games at home and the defense is allowing 11 points per game.

Scheduled matchups in the first round of the College Football Playoff

A look at Sporting News’ predicted first-round College Football Playoff games ahead of Week 8 of the college football season:

No. 12 Boise State (5-1, Mountain West champions) vs. No. 5 Penn State (6-0, Big Ten overall)

The Nittany Lions advance after a 33-30 win at USC. Drew Allar (30 of 43, 391 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) led Penn State back from a two-TD halftime deficit, and tight end Tyler Warren had 17 catches for 224 yards and a TD. Those are video game statistics, similar to Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who continued his fantastic season with 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 28-7 win over Hawaii. Beaver Stadium gets a home game in the first round. Will it be at night?

No. 11 LSU (5-1, SEC overall) at No. 6 Georgia (5-1, SEC overall)

The Tigers are coming off an overtime win against Ole Miss. LSU is 17-1 under Brian Kelly at Tiger Stadium and they are the fourth SEC team in the playoffs. LSU has to beat Tennessee and Texas A&M for that spot, but a potential matchup against Georgia would be exciting considering those teams don’t play in the regular season. Carson Beck rushed for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have another test against No. 1 Texas in Week 8.

No. 10 BYU (6-0, Big 12) and No. 7 Ohio State (5-1, Big Ten overall)

The Cougars beat Arizona 41-19 and continued to enjoy home-field advantage in the Big 12. BYU forced four turnovers, part of a trend in which the Cougars have forced eight turnovers and committed none in three home games. It’s a shame that they would get an away game here against Ohio State, which slipped into this spot after a 32-31 loss to Oregon. The Buckeyes lost another top-five game under Ryan Day, but could get a chance at a rematch with the Ducks in the Big Ten championship game.

No. 9 Alabama (5-1, SEC overall) at No. 8 Clemson (5-1, ACC overall)

There is playoff history between these teams. Alabama beat Georgia, but the Crimson Tide survived in a nail-biter against South Carolina. Jalen Milroe had 245 total yards and three touchdowns. Clemson lost to Georgia, but the Tigers found a rhythm on offense around Cade Klubnik (31 of 41, 309 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Phil Mafah (19-108, 2 touchdowns). How would the Crimson Tide fare in a new Death Valley?

Projected College Football Playoff Bubble Teams

Tennessee (5-1, SEC)

Tennessee fans aren’t going to love this, but have the Vols looked like a playoff team the last two weeks? The Vols lost 19-14 to Arkansas and needed overtime to knock off Florida at home. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is averaging 163.5 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception over the last two weeks. We’ll get Tennessee back when they beat Alabama in Week 8 in a battle of one-loss SEC teams.

Notre Dame (5-1, Independent)

The Irish defeated Stanford 49-7 in a rivalry matchup and are inching closer to the playoffs despite a loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. Riley Leonard is averaging 182 pass yards with a 70% completion rate, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three starts. The Irish have two potentially tricky neutral-site games against Georgia Tech (Atlanta) and undefeated Navy (New Jersey) in the next two weeks.

Texas A&M (5-1, SEC)

The Aggies lost 23-13 to Notre Dame in Week 1 – otherwise this surprise team would be ranked higher under first-year coach Mike Elko. A healthy Conner Weigman and the emergence of running back Le’Veon Moss (609 yards, 6 TDs) are a good fit for a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer since the loss to the Irish.

Indiana (6-0, Big Ten)

Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are no longer college football’s best-kept secret. Indiana leads the Big Ten with 515.7 yards per game, and quarterback Kurtis Rourke leads the Big Ten with a passer rating of 192.1. Nebraska visits Memorial Stadium in Week 8. This is a huge place for Indiana.

Pitt (6-0, ACC)

The Panthers outlasted Cal in a thrilling 17-15 duel with the help of a missed field goal with 1:50 left. All-purpose star Desmond Reid had 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He has three games with over 100 rushing yards and two games with over 100 receiving yards. Pitt has a bye week before its Oct. 24 game against Syracuse.