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Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS preview: Key matchup, how each team wins and series prediction

Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS preview: Key matchup, how each team wins and series prediction

We made it to the baseball Final Four. Through two rounds of this postseason, the Dodgers and Mets have emerged from the National League and are engaged in a cross-country battle for a spot in the World Series.

This National League Championship Series promises plenty of fireworks, with an array of stars led by Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso ready to put on a show starting in Game 1 on Sunday.

Let’s break it down.

Mets: No one in baseball has won more games since June 1st. All the adorable moments — Pete Alonso’s pumpkin, Jose Iglesias’ music career, Grimace — somewhat overshadow the fact that this has been a phenomenal team for 15 weeks.

So far in October, starting pitching has prevailed in New York. A Mets starter must allow more than three earned runs in every start so far. As a unit, they have allowed 10 runs in 37 innings, good for a 2.43 ERA. In Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS against the Phillies, Sean Manaea and José Quintana combined for just one earned run in 12 innings. This group has grown significantly, which is a good thing considering how relatively taxed the bullpen seems to be right now.

Dodgers: Expectations are always higher in LA, as they should be given the payroll and star power this team boasts every year. But even against the playoff team no one wanted to see in the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers showed a different kind of fight and managed to emerge victorious in the most intense series so far this postseason.

Yes, the Dodgers got big plays over the course of the series from players like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández. But the key to LA’s comeback against San Diego was the bullpen. Dodgers relievers held the Padres scoreless in the final 24 innings of the series. The big, bad Dodgers were on the ropes, but with new life, they’re starting to realize how good they are.

Mets pitching against Shohei Ohtani:

Shohei Ohtani has the ability to change any game at any time in one fell swoop. He will be the focal point of the Mets pitching staff throughout the NLCS. After his game-winning home run in Game 1 against the Padres, San Diego did well to neutralize Ohtani as he went 4-for-20 with 10 strikeouts over the rest of the NLDS.

But there was clearly a plan of attack throughout the series, and having an elite, high-leverage arm like Tanner Scott going up against Ohtani late in games definitely helps. If New York wants to give itself a chance against one of the best lineups in MLB, the Mets pitchers will need to stop the engine of that lineup in Ohtani.

Mets: The Mets can win this series because their starting pitching and pitching depth are significantly better than the Dodgers. The ability to use Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana will give New York a fighting chance in every game. And with their biggest stars playing like stars at the perfect time, the Mets’ sluggers will put pressure on LA’s starting pitching – or lack thereof – in every game and quickly get to the Dodgers’ bullpen, which will carry over into the entire series goes along. How well the LA substitutes hold up could make the difference in this game.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers win the NLCS, it will be because the switch they flipped after Game 3 of the NLDS has given them renewed belief that, at best, they are better than their competition. From an offensive standpoint, few, if any, teams can compete with these Dodgers. And with Mookie Betts starting to look like himself, Ohtani is always a threat to leave the court and the sheer depth LA offers, especially when the Hernándezes pair gets hot as a game of the series becomes a high-stakes affair score, the Dodgers will have a huge advantage.

Dodgers in seven: This series won’t be a walk in the park for both teams. The Mets appear to be the doomed team this postseason, but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that they are a very good ballclub. The Dodgers come into the game with a lot of momentum after an exciting series against the rival Padres. New York has a clear advantage when it comes to pitching, but LA’s lineup is built for game-changing slugs and big swings.

The difference probably lies with the bullpens and the managers. Both Dave Roberts and Carlos Mendoza have outscored their opponents so far in October. Mendoza didn’t appear rattled in the postseason, even as a rookie manager, but Roberts still has the advantage because he’s experienced these moments so many times before. This series will go the distance, but the Dodgers’ experience will give them an advantage and send them to the World Series for the first time since 2020.