Three key questions the Phillies must face in a critical offseason that will bring change

NEW YORK – Before the Phillies fielded their deepest roster this October, Dave Dombrowski talked Windows. They have always opened and closed – this is the law of physics. The Phillies have envisioned a dynamic in which their wealthy owners bankroll one of the highest payrolls in sports while the Phillies improve their minor league pipeline. In this case it is not necessary to close the window.

This is a nirvana that few franchises have achieved. The Phillies — after exiting 2024 one round earlier than 2023, which ended one round earlier than 2022 — now face an offseason that will bring changes. These changes are not obvious.

The club has three impending free agents: Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estévez and Spencer Turnbull. Ten players are under contract for 2025, and nine other players are eligible for salary negotiations. A large part of the squad has been decided.

But as the Phillies begin to examine the rubble, Dombrowski, the club’s president of baseball operations, has options for redesigning the outfield and bullpen.

Payroll is not considered a restriction this winter. The Phillies enjoyed strong attendance in 2024 with a rebuilt season-ticket base, and John Middleton, their CEO and most active voice of ownership, will be motivated to keep pace with the sport’s biggest donors.

The Phillies maintained an unusual level of continuity between 2023 and 2024. There will be more changes this time, but the core of this squad will look the same. The Phillies advanced further in this year’s postseason tournament than the other three league finalists – Texas, Houston and Arizona – from 2023. They had one of the best regular-season records in baseball with a dominant rotation, a hot-and-cold offense and a strike-throwing bullpen. On paper, they were almost a complete team.

What now?

“I don’t feel like our window is closing,” Dombrowski said last week before Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the New York Mets. “I hear that again and again. What I think happens is that sometimes it ends with the current players, but that doesn’t mean it ends overall.

“And I’m not saying this is the right time period. But there are young players coming in that we really like. And we also have owners who are very kind to us with our payroll expenses.”

Here are some initial thoughts on a critical Phillies offseason.

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1. How different does the outfield look?

The Phillies entered 2024 hoping that Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas could establish themselves as everyday players. Neither did. Marsh regressed against lefty pitchers and fell to another platoon. Rojas’ defense was not as spectacular as before and he failed to incorporate more attacking play into his offensive game.

The team’s .708 OPS from the outfield ranked 16th in Major League Baseball. Sometimes it was a glaring weakness. The larger context suggests it was just average.

Nick Castellanos is anchored in right field; His contract runs for two years and is worth $40 million. The Phillies could shop him, although any hypothetical trade would require them to repay the Castellanos deal. He probably has more value to the Phillies than he would return in a trade.

The Phillies will be tied to their biggest offseason prize, Juan Soto, all winter long. It would be foolish for the Phillies not to participate in Soto’s market, even though one of the New York teams is the favorite to sign Soto. Soto maintains a close relationship with Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long; Soto’s camp will certainly get that message across when it comes to landing a record-breaking contract. At least the Phillies could raise the price of a rival signing Soto.

The Phillies don’t need to move on from Marsh or Rojas, but both could become trade candidates this offseason. Marsh, who turns 27 in December, will be eligible for arbitration for the first time. He looks like a platoon player – and a valuable one at that. Whether he fits into the Phillies’ revamped outfield remains to be seen.

There are prospects within the farm system, but they might not be considered big league help in 2025. Rival evaluators are bullish on Gabriel Rincones Jr., a 23-year-old cornerback-outfielder who is hitting .263/.357/.487 in an injury-shortened season at Double-A Reading. Rincones is playing in the Arizona Fall League this month. Rincones’ raw power showed better in the games. Center fielder Justin Crawford finished 2023 in Double A and could play his way to the big leagues next season. But the 20-year-old Crawford still needs to continue to develop both physically and swing-wise. His combination of bat-to-ball skills and speed at a premium position is an appealing package.

All signs point to the Phillies adding at least one outfielder via a trade or free agency.

2. How do the Phillies rebuild the bullpen?

Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering, who have been strong all season and were shaky in October, are back as anchors. José Alvarado, who moved to a minor role, will receive $9 million in 2025. Tanner Banks and José Ruiz could return as substitutes on the center line.

The Phillies have to decide whether the bullpen collapse in the NLDS was a bad week — or something bigger. That could determine how aggressively they pursue Hoffman and Estévez. They gave up two quality pitching prospects to acquire Estévez, and when Dombrowski made that trade, he hinted that Estévez might be in the club’s plans beyond 2024.

He didn’t miss as many at-bats as the Phillies expected, and his command wavered at times. It will be hard to shake the memory of missing his spot with a 99 mph fastball that Francisco Lindor smashed for a season-ending grand slam.

Estévez was popular in the clubhouse. He will be 32 years old in December. He said he would like to return to the Phillies.

“I mean, hopefully,” Estévez said. “That would be great. But let’s see. You know how it is.”

Hoffman should receive a bigger contract than Estévez; The Phillies may have to choose one. (In case they’re interested in bringing the right-hander back.) The last two postseasons didn’t end well for Hoffman, but he proved in 2024 that his breakout season in 2023 was no fluke.

Nevertheless, multi-year contracts with 32-year-old replacement players are dangerous. Hoffman wants to return. He didn’t hide it.

“We’ve been catching partners for two years,” Strahm said of Hoffman. “I literally saw him turn his career around. I also watched him fall in love with the city of Philadelphia and this team. I mean, I’ll pray every night for him to come back.”

Even if the Phillies re-sign Hoffman or Estévez, they will need more to bolster the bullpen. It will be a priority in the offseason.

3. Do the Phillies still have faith in Alec Bohm?

Manager Rob Thomson benched Bohm for Game 2 of the NLDS, signaling the team’s disappointment with his hiring. The Phillies felt that Bohm’s frustration had also carried over into the attacks that followed. The confident, run-producing cleanup hitter that powered the Phillies in the early months of the season is fading over time.

During Games 3 and 4, he had issues at the plate and in the field.

“I mean, I definitely wasn’t my best self,” Bohm said. “And it doesn’t feel good. But it is what it is. It’s a tough game. You’re not always going to get hit and do all these things. There are other ways to help the team win, but it just didn’t happen.”

The Phillies still have two years of club control over the 28-year-old Bohm. He will earn almost $8 million in 2025. Bohm showed growth on defense during the season. He is a productive player.

He is not a complete player. Bohm missed two weeks with a hand injury and never found his footing when he returned in September. But even before the injury he had experienced a crisis.

“Obviously I wasn’t the same guy when I came back,” Bohm said. “Is it the hand? I don’t know. I don’t feel like it is. I definitely didn’t get back to where I was before I swung the club. But for me there is no excuse. I don’t think that was really the reason for it. I don’t know what the reason was. I wish I knew. Otherwise I wouldn’t have fought like I did.”

If the Phillies aren’t sure where Bohm fits in all of this, they could look to move him while he still has those two years of control over the club. It’s unlikely. Bohm posted a career-high 117 OPS+, meaning he was 17 percent above league average. But the club has high value on Aidan Miller, a 20-year-old infielder who reached Double A at the end of the season. He needs time. But he could be in the majors sooner rather than later.

Perhaps the way Bohm’s season ended crystallized his long-term future. He has a place in the immediate plans. But should Miller move forward, the Phillies could be content to let Bohm walk after the 2026 season. It’s time to let everything take its course.

(Top photo by Brandon Marsh: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)