“Russia’s dirty money will hijack our democratic process”: How tiny Moldova fears the Kremlin is rigging the EU referendum | Moldova

LIn the spring, the customs officials of the small state of Moldova found what they were looking for. Acting on a tip from national intelligence, they intercepted more than 100 passengers arriving from Russia via Armenia, each of whom was carrying wads of cash worth almost 10,000 euros – the threshold for a mandatory declaration. In a single night, authorities at Chișinău airport confiscated more than 900,000 euros.

Moldovan officials immediately announced that the cash couriers were part of a plan allegedly led by a Kremlin-linked fugitive oligarch aimed at funding protesters and buying votes for this month’s presidential election and crucial EU referendum.

The operation provided the first indication of what Moldovan and Western officials have described in interviews with the government observer as an unprecedented attempt by Russia to undermine the country’s bid for EU membership and weaken the authority of its pro-Western president through a series of destabilizing campaigns.

“Russia is investing millions in dirty money to hijack our democratic processes. This is not just interference, but comprehensive interference aimed at destabilizing our future. And it is alarming,” said Olga Roşca, foreign policy adviser to pro-Western President Maia Sandu.

The election, scheduled for October 20, in which Sandu must be re-elected, is scheduled to take place on the same day as a referendum asking Moldovans whether they support constitutional changes that would allow the country – one of the poorest in Europe – to eventually join could enable the EU.

Roşca said the government estimates that at least 100 million euros flowed from Russia to Moldova to rig the elections and the EU referendum. It is not the first warning of Russian interference: in June, the US, Britain and Canada said Moscow was trying to interfere in Moldova’s politics and would try to provoke mass protests if its campaign failed.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova has oscillated between a pro-Western and a pro-Russian course, although the shadow of the Kremlin has always been large. Moscow also has 1,500 soldiers stationed in Transnistria, a region ruled by pro-Russian separatists who escaped the control of Moldova’s government in a brief war in the 1990s.

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Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president in November 2020 and enjoyed popularity as an anti-corruption reformer with a pro-European agenda. She advocates a modest lifestyle – a sharp contrast to the bombastic, predominantly male politicians who have long dominated Moldova’s politics.

In a recent interview, the president said she shared a two-bedroom apartment with her mother, while her 2023 asset declaration listed her bank balance at $600.

In 2021, Sandu’s pro-Western PAS party won a majority in the country’s parliamentary elections, giving it unprecedented power to implement reforms and push the country westward. But three years later, Moldova remains mired in economic and political instability.

First, the country was plunged into an energy crisis when Kremlin-controlled Gazprom cut gas supplies to the country by a third and charged more than double previous prices to keep the flow flowing, which was widely seen as Moscow’s political revenge for Sandu’s pro-Western stance . Then Russia’s war against Ukraine plunged Moldova into a broader financial crisis.

Just a few hours away Driving from Odessa, Moldova received the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita, placing a huge strain on the health system, public services and infrastructure. Inflation rose by up to 40% as trade with Moscow and Kiev fell sharply.

Stray Russian missiles from the conflict added to the growing sense of danger, while Russian troops stationed in Transnistria added to fears.

“Sandu promised a lot, but the geopolitical situation was very difficult for them. They have not been able to fulfill all the promises,” a Western official in Moldova said, reflecting growing frustration among some Moldovans with Sandu and her party.

“There is growing apathy and disappointment, which represents fertile ground for Russia,” the official added.

Sandu remains the favorite to win the presidential election in the first round against 10 challengers, but she faces a difficult runoff in the second round.

She is also leading the “Yes” campaign for the EU referendum, with polls showing 55-65% of voters in favor of joining the EU. For Sandu, it was a big boost that Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June. However, skepticism remains high about the country’s ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.

Opposition critics accused Sandu of politicizing the referendum by holding it on the same day as the presidential election, suggesting the move was aimed at improving her own political chances. “The referendum is a very cynical step,” said Alexandr Stoianoglo in Chisinau, one of Sandu’s main rivals from the Russia-friendly Socialist Party, which is at 12% in the polls.

“EU integration should not be used for personal gain,” he added.

But Sandu’s entourage said Russia’s growing influence meant the country could not afford to wait. “We have a unique opportunity: Moldova has a pro-European president, a pro-European parliament and a pro-European government. “The EU is open to our membership as all countries supported the accession talks last June,” Rosa said. “Moldova’s survival as a democracy is at stake and the geopolitical risks are higher than ever,” Roşca said.

The biggest threat to Sandu comes from abroad, say her supporters. In particular, fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal – and wealthy – opponent of EU membership who has been sanctioned by the West.

Shor was sentenced in absentia last year to 15 years in prison for his role in the disappearance of $1 billion from Moldova’s banking system. He fled to Israel and then to Moscow, where he founded a political movement aimed at destabilizing the current government in Chișinău.

At a press conference last Thursday, national police chief Viorel Cernăuțanu accused Shor and Moscow of implementing a complex “mafia-like” voter-buying program and bribing 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the referendum and for pro-Russia candidates in an “unprecedented, direct Attack”.

Officials in Chișinău also believe Shor is behind a wave of vandalism attacks on government buildings ahead of the election, accusing him of recruiting young people supposedly trained in Moscow to sow unrest in the country. “We are prepared for anything in the coming weeks,” said a city security official. “There will be a variety of misinformation campaigns, violent street protests and gross vote buying,” they added.

Shor did not respond to questions from the observer. But he has done little to distance himself from accusations that he is trying to interfere in Moldova’s politics from abroad. On the social network Telegram, he offered voters the equivalent of $29 if they would register for his campaign, promising money to people who would “convince as many people as possible at their polling station to vote with” to vote “no” or to abstain from the referendum.

He has publicly pledged to pay Moldovans for publishing anti-EU posts on Facebook and Telegram.

The central “fear-mongering” narrative that Shor promotes revolves around the claim that Chisinau’s pro-European policies are pushing the country into war with Russia, said Vadim Pistrinciuc, the director of the Institute for Moldova’s Strategic Initiatives, a think tank.

“We have never faced foreign interference on this scale,” he added.

Worryingly for officials in Chisinau, Shor’s tactics have also proven effective elsewhere in the country.

Last year, Yevgenia Gutsul, a previously unknown candidate supported by Shor, caused a political earthquake when she won gubernatorial elections in Gagauzia, another small, Russian-speaking semi-autonomous region in the south of the country.

Pro-Russian sentiment has always prevailed in Gagauzia, a region populated by a Turkish ethnic minority that has had a tense relationship with the capital Chisinau since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

But Gutsul’s rise from obscurity and her ties to the Kremlin have baffled even seasoned observers and raised questions about Moscow’s role in his election.

“It was at zero two weeks before the election and then all of a sudden she shows up and wins,” said Mihail Sirkeli, founder of Nokta, an independent media company based in Gagauzia.

Gutsul, which has openly declared that it is “a pro-Russian party” and traveled to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin after being elected, is currently under investigation for allegedly funneling Russian funds to a party linked to Shor .

“Shor is trying to repeat the Gagauz playbook across the country,” said a Western diplomat in Chisinau.

Officials in Moldova expect Moscow to focus its efforts for now on influencing the EU referendum rather than the presidential election, where Sandu remains by far the most popular politician.

“If the referendum is approved, it will lead to constitutional changes that will be harder to reverse in the long run compared to the election results,” a senior Moldovan official said.

But even if Sandu survives this month’s vote and referendum, her team expects renewed efforts from the Kremlin next year when her party faces re-election in the country’s parliamentary elections.

“Russia’s goal is clear: to keep Moldova in a gray zone,” Roşca said. “If they lose Moldova, they will lose a strategic base in the region.”