Ted Cruz and Colin Allred are fighting another big fight in the US Senate in Texas

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Attacking advertising on every TV break. Campaign money is pouring in. And on a sunny Saturday, a crowd stretches out the door for a campaign rally at Tulip’s, a popular nightclub in Fort Worth – this time for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker who is trying to unseat the Republican senator. Ted Cruz.

Texas has another one this October.

With Democrats defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans, Allred’s bid could be her best chance to flip a seat next month and preserve her slim Senate majority. Cruz is imploring Republican supporters to take the challenge seriously, six years after his Narrow victory over Beto O’Rourke revealed fault lines for Republicans after decades of dominance in Texas.

But Allred, who would become Texas’ first black senator, does things his own way. Looking for more than just the moral victories that Texas Democrats have settled for since 1994 – the last victory in a statewide election – Allred has moved to the center, moving away from O’Rourke’s hectic and rule-breaking plan. The different appearance has frustrated some Democrats, but with signs of a closely contested race less than a month away, Allred is sticking to his script.

“Beto didn’t win, but he was successful,” said 21-year-old Ryan Armstrong, who was registering voters outside Tulip’s on a clipboard that still had a sticker that read “Beto for Texas.” “I have a lot of hope that (Allred) will win, but I honestly don’t know if he’s done enough.”

Abortion rights and a trip to Cancun

Allred, a three-term congressman from Dallas, is a very different candidate by nature than O’Rourke, an electrifying speaker who quickly jumped on a table to fire up a crowd and traveled to all 254 counties. Allred describes himself as someone who “keeps a cool head” and presents himself as a non-partisan problem solver. To win with this low-key approach, he will need the enthusiasm of Vice President Kamala Harris at the forefront of the Democratic candidates, even as he stands apart from her in a state that former President Donald Trump is expected to win by a wide margin.

“Colin has to surpass Harris, so it’s a little more delicate for him than it is for us,” said David Wysong, a top adviser to O’Rourke during his 2018 run against Cruz.

Allred is underscoring his moderate credentials by touting the support of prominent Republicans, including former U.S. Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney.

Other factors could also work in Allred’s favor. Most notable is the US Supreme Court Decision in 2022 to eliminate constitutional protections for abortion, a decision that paved the way for Texas to ban it almost all abortions. It’s been a winning issue for Democrats ever since, even in red states like Kentucky and Kansas.

Allred has highlighted and highlighted abortion rights in his campaign personal story of Kate Coxa Texas woman who was forced to leave the state to have an abortion after doctors determined her fetus had a fatal condition for which there are no exceptions under Texas law.

He hasn’t let up on Cruz either Family vacation in Mexico during a deadly winter storm that knocked out the state’s power grid and will likely remind voters of that again when the candidates debate Oct. 15.

Cruz goes on the offensive

Meanwhile, Cruz has evolved from a hardline partisan who showed little interest in governing when he arrived in Washington into a get-all-the-done Republican, standing up to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats. He remains equally combative, attacking Allred as a “radical leftist” and linking the congressman to immigration issues and transgender rights.

“Let me tell you, Chuck Schumer and the communists have Tarrant County in their sights,” Cruz said to a packed house of supporters at Outpost 36, a barbecue restaurant in the Fort Worth suburb of Keller.

“You can’t have it,” he said, prompting cheers from people waving Cruz signs that read “Keep Texas Texas.”

Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and the rapidly growing surrounding suburbs, is where Allred must score big victories. Races have been close here in recent cycles, with O’Rourke leading Cruz by less than a percentage point in 2018 and President Joe Biden winning the county by a similar margin four years ago.

“Six years ago it was a real struggle, and this year it’s a real struggle,” Cruz said. “It’s not complicated. If you’re a die-hard partisan Democrat, after Donald Trump, there’s no one in the country you want to beat more than me.”

And although O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign represented something of a national roadmap for Democrats, he lost his campaign Attempt to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott two years ago by more than 10 percentage points.

Campaign spending in Texas exceeds $120 million

The amount spent by both sides indicates the national importance of the race.

According to AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, the $120 million spent by both parties on the U.S. Senate race in Texas is expected to exceed the roughly $40 million spent on either the Senate race in Florida were paid or reserved, another top goal for Democrats. But it pales in comparison to elections in Montana and Ohio, where total spending is more than $700 million in elections where Democrats are defending seats in states that lean red.

Part of Texas’ high spending is due to its size, with 20 different television markets, including two of the largest and most expensive in the country in Dallas and Houston.

“I think part of it also reflects the fact that Allred was very successful in raising money and spent a significant portion of it on television advertising,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “National Democrats have not yet demonstrated the same level of enthusiasm and optimism as the Allred campaign. That may be partly because they are still trying to understand the difficult math of combining defense, which they are much more focused on, and offense.”

Allred: From the NFL to Congress

Allred’s resume seems perfect for the Lone Star State. A star high school athlete from Dallas, he played linebacker and was captain of the football team at Baylor University in Waco. After his NFL career, he worked as a civil rights attorney.

He also defeated a high-profile Republican by defeating Rep. Pete Sessions after spending more than two decades in Congress in 2018. This campaign drew considerable energy from O’Rourke’s attempt to unseat Cruz, who defeated the former El Paso congressman by less than 3 percentage points.

Still, running a successful national campaign presents greater difficulties, and Allred’s approach has caused confusion among some Democrats. In Laredo, for example, a rapidly growing county on the U.S.-Mexico border, some Democrats wonder where he has been.

“He has done absolutely nothing, nothing that will appeal to our voters,” said Sylvia Bruni, chairwoman of the Webb County Democratic Party. “We’re obviously not worth the time for him.”

Allred defends his strategy and says the political landscape has changed.

“I’m a different candidate and this is a very different year,” he said. “Various issues have arisen since 2018.”

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Lozano reported from Houston. Leah Askarinam of the Decision Desk contributed from Washington.