San Diego Padres 2024 offseason preview: What needs to happen for the Padres to compete with the Dodgers in the NL West?

Let’s take a look at the San Diego Padres’ 2024 season, the questions the team will have to address this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB Offseason Preview: What’s Next for the Orioles, Astros, Phillies and More??

Postseason result

The Padres beat the Braves in the wild card round but lost to the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS. They lost a back-and-forth Game 1 before putting on a show in a raucous Game 2. They took a two games to one lead with a 6-5 win at rockin’ Petco Park in Game 3, but the Dodgers bounced back and posted shutout victories in Games 4 and 5.

Overall, Fernando Tatis (1.500 OPS), Jackson Merrill (.833) and Kyle Higashioka (1.062) carried the offense in the postseason, with David Peralta contributing significantly. But Luis Arraez had a terrible postseason (.226 average) and Jake Cronenworth (.136) and Xander Bogaerts (.167) weren’t much better. The Padres’ offense finished the postseason by failing to score in 24 consecutive innings.

In the rotation, Dylan Cease was the one who struggled the most, as the Dodgers beat him in Game 1 and Game 4, both Padres losses. Michael King and Yu Darvish were effective, if not always supported by run support, and the bullpen was mostly solid. Losing Joe Musgrove in October hurt and could have been the difference in a hard-fought series.

Things that went well

The Padres were a model of perseverance this year, going 50-50 after 100 games before rallying to finish tied for the fourth-best record in baseball. The team overcame long-term injuries to its franchise player – Fernando Tatis Jr. appeared in 102 games – and two key starters and stayed in contention until a healthy team ultimately pulled away from the competition.

On the batting side, the success came from balanced contributions from several Padres. Jurickson Profar was the surprise player as he was expected to make minimal contributions on a one-year deal but instead led the club in OPS and runs scored. Manny Machado had another solid season, leading the Padres in home runs and RBI. Jackson Merrill exceeded all expectations his rookie year by hitting .292 with 24 home runs and an OPS of .826.

Two offseason acquisitions strengthened the pitching staff. Michael King, who was part of the Juan Soto trade, led the Padres in ERA. Dylan Cease, acquired from the White Sox in March, was the team leader in innings, wins and strikeouts. The relief corps was led by Robert Suarez, who was one of baseball’s best closers in his first season in the role.

Things that went wrong

After doing well in his first year with the Padres, Xander Bogaerts struggled with a fractured left shoulder this year and wasn’t very productive (.688 OPS) in the 111 games he played. San Diego needs the 32-year-old to get back on track next season with nine years left on his $280 million contract.

The biggest disappointment on the pitching side was injuries rather than performance, as Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove each managed fewer than 100 innings. The team struggled to replace those innings as Matt Waldron (26 starts, 4.79 ERA) and Randy Vazquez (20 starts, 4.87 ERA) didn’t accomplish much besides eating up innings.

Off season plans

Overall, the Padres’ 2025 roster is in great shape. The team had a mid-table payroll this season and has few flaws. It would be worth adding a starting pitcher, an outfielder and a catcher, but there aren’t many obvious holes for this team.

The infield is full of players who will be under the team’s control for multiple seasons. Luis Arraez is an atypical but effective first baseman who hits for average but lacks power. Bogaerts will continue to play second base, while Ha-Seong Kim and Machado will play shortstop and hot corner, respectively. Jake Cronenworth is a valuable utilityman who can share first base with Arraez and play other positions. However, the team is unsettled behind the plate after Luis Campusano took a major step backwards this season following a breakout 2023. Campusano will likely be part of a strong team in 2025, but he needs to be with someone reliable.

San Diego is in great shape with two of the three outfield spots. Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t yet reached his ceiling since missing the entire 2022 season, but even a somewhat disappointing version of Tatis is still an extremely effective player. He will play right field and Merrill will be the center fielder. Profar is headed to free agency, but after his surprising success in 2024, there should be interest on both sides to continue the relationship.

The rotation returns three key members in Cease, King and Darvish. Although Waldron and Vazquez have struggled at times this year, they are good enough to compete for the final rotation spot. Given that Darvish is 38 years old, Musgrove is expected to miss 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and there are no top pitching prospects in San Diego’s minor league system, would be it makes sense for the team to acquire a starter via a trade or free agency.

The relief corps can absorb the loss of Tanner Scott to free agency as the rest of the group will return. Suarez will continue in the role of closer and Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon will form the construction team.

Perspectives on the horizon

The Padres entered 2024 with one of the best farm systems in baseball before jettisoning many of their top prospects with this year’s deals to acquire Cease, Arraez, Adam and Scott. They still have a few gems, but there’s no one in the pipeline that’s likely to make a significant contribution next year.

Ethan Salas was considered the top national player in the 2023 signing class. He is considered an outstanding defensive catcher whose plate skills are still developing. Salas is only 18 years old and needs at least two minor league seasons left.

The other notable candidate is shortstop Leodalis De Vries, who was arguably the top prospect in the 2024 international signing period. De Vries is only 17 years old and is a true five-man candidate. Like Salas, he will need at least two more years of minor league development.

Goals for 2025

Even the Padres front office would have to admit that the Dodgers have a stranglehold on the NL West. After all, Los Angeles has won the division in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and San Diego’s most recent NL West title came back in 2006. For this reason, the first goal for the Padres in 2025 should be to reach the postseason. Many teams had strong postseason success from wild-card spots, including the Padres, who reached the NLCS in 2022.

Surpassing Los Angeles should still be part of San Diego’s goal and plan, but it will be difficult to defeat a team that has posted a winning percentage of .600 or better in each of the last six seasons.

Fantasy focus

Tatis will lead the way for San Diego in fantasy circles, with an expected average draft position near the end of Round 1 or the beginning of Round 2. The next Padre off the board will be Cease, who is rated low . End ace, followed by Merrill and the extremely reliable Machado. These three players will be selected in Round 5.

The remaining Padres will be selected in the middle of the round, with Suarez, Bogaerts and Kim fitting into that category. Darvish will be a boom-or-bust option in the second half of drafts.