What three new national polls reveal about the state of the 2024 race

• Vice President Harris and former President Trump continue to face tough competition ahead of November.
• Harris leads in two new national polls, while both candidates are tied in a third poll.
• Both candidates continue to fight for dominance on the economy, which is the most important issue for voters.

Less than a month before the November general election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are storming major swing states to bolster their respective votes and win over undecided voters.

The presidential election will be decided in battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but national polls can also point to larger voting trends.

One thing is certain: the race remains incredibly close.

Of the three major national polls released Sunday, Harris remained ahead in two polls, while both candidates were tied in another poll.

In the most recent CBS News/YouGov poll, Harris had a three-point lead over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%). And Harris also led among likely voters in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll by two points (50% to 48%).

But Harris and Trump were neck-and-neck in the latest NBC News poll of registered voters (48% to 48%), with the former president erasing a five-point lead over the vice president last month.

What do these results say about where the race is headed?

The economy remains central

One constant in the presidential campaign is the importance of economic issues to voters.

While the unemployment rate is significantly lower than it was four years ago, inflation is a recurring problem for Americans.

The economy has always been one of Trump’s biggest issues. Had President Joe Biden remained the Democratic nominee, the former president’s lead on the issue in states like Arizona and Nevada may have been too large for Biden to overcome.

But after Biden withdrew as the presumptive nominee in July, Harris’ entry into the race turned the election around and allowed Democrats to recast their economic message independent of the president.

In several swing state polls, Harris managed to get closer to Trump on economic issues.

However, the three polls showed Trump still had an economic advantage.

In the NBC poll, Trump had an 11-point lead over Harris (50% to 39%) when asked which candidate would best handle inflation and cost of living issues.

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Meanwhile, respondents to the ABC poll gave Trump an eight-point lead on the economy (46% to 38%) and a seven-point lead on tackling inflation (44% to 37%). However, Harris had a five-point lead (42% to 37%) over Trump in the ABC poll when it came to which candidate would pay attention to middle-class Americans.

However, in the CBS survey, 67% of respondents said prices of the items they purchased had increased in recent months, while just 6% said prices had decreased. But Trump has focused on this issue throughout his campaign.

Both candidates — especially Harris — will continue to focus on economic issues in the coming weeks.

Who is the candidate for change?

Although he has already been president, Trump is running as a candidate for change – and represents conservative positions that would represent a significant reversal from those of the Biden administration on issues from immigration to judicial appointments.

Harris is also running as a change candidate. She has been more forceful than Biden in articulating her views on issues such as reproductive rights and border security.

On most issues, Trump has tried at every turn to link Harris to Biden.

So far, however, she has a lead – albeit a small one – when it comes to the question of which candidate would represent change.

In the NBC News poll, Harris had a five-point lead over Trump when asked which candidate represented change (45% to 40%). The number represents a slight decline from their nine-point lead in September (47% to 38%).

With many voters looking for a candidate to turn around the Biden years, it’s telling that Harris maintains a lead on the issue, even as her overall lead in the NBC poll has declined. For many voters – particularly young voters concerned about the economy and the conflict in Gaza – the “change” factor remains crucial.