NFL Week 6 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks, buzz

We’re headed into Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 6 winners

Can the Jets’ new regime help Garrett Wilson with a different scheme?

The Jets’ route profile is quite the sight. The team ranks top three in rate of short fades, deep fades, short outs, ins, slants and go routes. It’s in the bottom three in deep crossers, medium crossers, deep outs, comebacks and digs.

In other words, New York runs short or straight. This makes the offense somewhat arcane, and that’s especially bad for Wilson. Over 2022-23, Wilson’s highest yards run per route (screens excluded) came on digs, deep crossers, deep overs, posts and comebacks. His usage on all five of those routes has dropped this season.

Wilson is running posts at less than half the rate he did in the past two years, and he is seeing just over half the number of digs. A big change new Jets playcaller Todd Downing can make versus the Bills is to get Wilson running laterally again and cut down on the back-shoulder passes Rodgers typically throws.

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Will outside runs fix the Falcons’ running game against the Panthers?

You don’t need to tell Bijan Robinson’s fantasy managers this, but Atlanta’s rushing game has been disappointing this season (27th in EPA per play). The Panthers might be just what the Falcons need to get back on track, though.

No team runs outside the tackles more than the Falcons (42% of the time). And they are way more efficient on those runs, combining for 0.06 EPA per play on runs outside the tackles versus a minus-0.16 EPA per play inside. It turns out that the Panthers are much worse against outside runs (0.14 EPA allowed per play) than inside (minus-0.01). Expect plenty of successful outside-zone runs from Atlanta on Sunday.

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Can the Saints protect Spencer Rattler against the Bucs?

The Saints started the season looking as if they had made major improvements in their offensive line. After five weeks, it looks as if the “improvement” was perhaps just a fluke from facing the Panthers in Week 1.

Now, New Orleans ranks 29th in pass block win rate, which is bad news for Rattler, whose 8.4% sack rate at South Carolina last year ranked 113th out of 128 FBS quarterbacks. The only saving grace here is the Saints are playing against the Buccaneers’ nonthreatening pass rush in Rattler’s debut. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in pass rush win rate, with no player having more than three sacks.

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Can Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell lead the Colts without Michael Pittman Jr.?

The data suggests the Colts are sneakily deep at wide receiver and can weather Pittman’s back injury fairly well. Downs — whose status is also in question due to a toe injury — is on fire after returning in Week 3, collecting 26 targets over three games.

Downs has an 82 open score, via ESPN’s receiver scores, so far this season — third best in the league. He’s not the only one getting open, though. Mitchell, the rookie out of Texas, has a 71 open score (tied for 13th best among wide receivers). Mitchell has only 70 receiving yards, but the odds suggest that production will increase if you’re getting open. It hurts to lose Pittman, but the Colts would be a lot worse off if they didn’t have Downs and Mitchell as support against the Titans.

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Can Zach Allen dominate a mismatch and get to Justin Herbert?

In terms of pass block and pass rush win rates, Sunday’s Chargers-Broncos game features one of the largest mismatches you’ll see. Allen has been crushing it this season, with a 26% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle; no one else at the position is even at 20%. And he will mostly line up opposite Chargers third-year guard Zion Johnson, who ranks 65th out of 66 qualifying guards in pass block win rate. This is an incredible opportunity for Allen to disrupt the Chargers’ passing game.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (38.7% rostered)

After Bigsby’s 26-point performance in Week 5, it’s surprising his roster percentage isn’t over 50%. He has outperformed Travis Etienne Jr., averaging 1.2 fantasy points per touch compared with Etienne’s 0.61.

As Etienne deals with a shoulder injury he aggravated in Week 5, Bigsby is finally getting more touches. He’ll face a Bears defense in Week 6 that allows the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and gives up the 11th-most rushing yards per attempt (4.8). If Etienne is ruled out, Bigsby’s fantasy ceiling is even higher.

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Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (21.0% rostered)

Pittman’s injury could mean more targets for Pierce. He has been a big-play threat this season, averaging an impressive 28.3 yards per reception and 3.2 fantasy points per target. He’s a great sleeper against the Titans, as he has shown chemistry with both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco under center. When Pierce gets five or more targets in his career, he has averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game.

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Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys (20.5% rostered)

We all saw Tolbert’s potential in Week 5, especially with Brandin Cooks on injured reserve. He had 10 targets and scored 21.7 fantasy points against the Steelers with a similar number of snaps and ran about the same number of routes as CeeDee Lamb.

With the Lions’ defense giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, Dallas might lean more on the passing game in Week 6. Luckily for Tolbert, the Lions allow the second-most FPPG to wide receivers.

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Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.5% rostered)

Fantasy managers are looking for any edge they can find at tight end, and Otton makes a great sleeper pick for Week 6. Over the past three games, he has averaged 7.0 targets and 47.7 receiving yards per game while playing nearly every snap. He’ll go up against a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.

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Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (13.9% rostered)

Fantasy managers had low expectations for Jones this season, but he has scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. The breakout of rookie receiver Malik Nabers has certainly helped, though Jones put up a season-high 22.0 fantasy points without Nabers (concussion) in Week 5.

The dual-threat quarterback faces a Bengals defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points and second-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. Even if Nabers is ruled out again, Jones is still a solid streamer with Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as his top two pass catchers.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Mark Andrews logs his first touchdown of the season

Andrews has caught 10 passes on the season. That’s it. However, he did secure four of five targets for a season-high 54 yards in a Week 5 win over Cincinnati, and I like the middle-of-the-field matchup here. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 78.2% of their throws inside the numbers against Washington, which is the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Look for Andrews to score on a seam throw from Lamar Jackson this Sunday.

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Cooper DeJean sacks Deshaun Watson

Watson’s QBR of 13.1 when facing the blitz (five or more rushers) ranks 29th in the NFL, and the Browns have really struggled to create a consistent pass game against pressure. I expect Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to heat up the pocket, sending pressure from the slot. And with DeJean expected to start at nickel corner in Week 6, I think he’ll get home to record his first NFL sack.

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D’Andre Swift catches five or more passes vs. Jacksonville

Over the past two games, Swift has caught all nine of his targets for 119 yards. He’s producing on screens and operating as an underneath outlet for quarterback Caleb Williams. I think this will continue in London, given the Jaguars’ defensive structure. Jacksonville has played Cover 2 on 33.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, which is the second-highest rate in the league. And that means more underneath targets for Swift as a checkdown option.

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Derek Stingley Jr. intercepts Drake Maye

With Maye getting his first career start, look for the Texans to spin coverages late and force the rookie to read the post-snap picture. This is where Stingley, who has one interception and three pass breakups on the season, can bait the rookie as a Cover 2 corner. He could potentially steal one in the flat.

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Darnell Mooney posts over 70 receiving yards vs. Carolina

Mooney has the big-play ability to get loose versus the Panthers’ secondary, and there will be opportunities for Kirk Cousins to test the third level of the field Sunday. This season, 33.3% of Mooney’s receptions have gone for 20 or more yards. He can continue that against a Carolina defense that allows 8.1 yards per attempt (sixth most in the league).

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 6

Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I’m not entirely sure why the Chargers are such clear favorites on the road since they haven’t really beaten anybody yet. Fresh off the bye, they might be healthier than Denver, but the Broncos’ defense has passed far more tests to achieve elite status. The Chargers’ defense has been good but largely unchallenged.

This will be a low-scoring slobberknocker, and I prefer the home team and the defense with huge turnover potential in such a game.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

The Steelers-Raiders game has an interesting subplot: Pittsburgh’s desire to trade for Davante Adams. The Steelers have strong interest in trading for the All-Pro receiver. The feeling among the people I’ve spoken to is Las Vegas has started with the Saints and Jets, in part because Adams is interested in playing there. But the longer this goes, perhaps the more things open up for a team such as Pittsburgh. Adams likely won’t be traded until next week at the earliest.

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Expect the Jets’ offense under new playcaller Todd Downing to attempt to start faster. The Jets have been one of the worst first-quarter scoring offenses in the league since 2023, averaging less than three points per game in the first quarter. Also watch for the Jets to get plays in quicker and be more efficient on first downs, possibly with increased play-action.

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Russell Wilson’s full health in Pittsburgh could deepen the intrigue in Week 7. He’s slated to be the backup to Justin Fields this weekend. Some people around the league believe Wilson will get the nod eventually, leaning on the fact that the team labeled him QB1 based on his command of the offense.

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Why I think the Saints turned to rookie Spencer Rattler this week: They like his mobility (especially with an offensive line in flux), and he has shown steady improvement from the preseason to now. Maybe they have something long term. So giving him at least one start as Derek Carr (oblique) heals up provides a glimpse into what he can be, coached by a staff that did extensive work on him in the 2024 draft.

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The Cowboys will decide Saturday whether to activate All-Pro corner DaRon Bland (foot) from injured reserve. They want to fully evaluate how he responded to a week of practice work. So, there’s a chance we’ll see him Sunday.

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The Commanders will evaluate running back Brian Robinson Jr. (questionable, knee) over the weekend, and though he’s considered a game-time decision, they know he has an uphill battle to play coming off no practice time this week. He’s also off to a hot start with five rushing touchdowns, so maybe he’ll push to keep the party going.