Will Bitcoin break the longest sideways trend of the halving cycle?

Since the start of the 2024 halving year, Bitcoin has yet to reach a new record high, spending more than 30 weeks in a sideways trend. This stagnation is raising concerns among investors and analysts about the possibility of an impending bull market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also warned that unless a bull market begins within the next 14 days, it will be the longest period of sideways movement since a halving year.

Prolonged stagnation in the Bitcoin market

As a result, it took longer than usual for stock prices to remain in the sideways zone compared to previous cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has developed very strong bullish momentum at this point in the halving cycle. This is usually followed by a very large price increase.

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However, the current cycle looks significantly different; The cryptocurrency is unable to spur similar growth. Such a divergence raises doubts about whether Bitcoin is capable of starting a strong uptrend like the previous cases.

Additionally, Ki Young Ju notes that Bitcoin’s price action is still resting below 1.5x aggregate value. That’s quite a ways down from the nearly 4x by this point in the 2020 halving cycle.

The absence of an upward movement of the range during an up phase is a signal of a change in the market situation. Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt continued to fuel speculation among traders and investors, stating that the ongoing pattern could be a sign of an impending market correction.

Based on historical data, this represents a sharp decline, according to Brandt. There has not been a new high for over 30 weeks. He warns that Bitcoin could see a market decline of up to 75%. Furthermore, he mentions that the next few weeks will be extremely crucial for the Bitcoin market.

Increase in long liquidations

Adding to the market woes, Bitcoin long-term liquidations hit a 28-month high. The recent decline resulted in massive selling, with $290 million worth of long liquidations taking place between October 9th and 10th.

It is clear that this liquidation indicates bearish pressure that triggers the bearish move and increased market fluctuations.

Apparently, much of the digital currency was sold at a loss; This is the strategy that most whale accounts follow. This selloff is adding to existing market volatility and disrupting the modest recovery that some analysts had expected in October.

However, as the current negative signals suggest, history offers some comfort, as Bitcoin rarely remains in the red at the end of October. Significant increases have been observed, especially after the halving events of 2016 and 2020, indicating recovery potential.

However, due to the peculiarities of the 2024 cycle, it is unknown whether Bitcoin will maintain this tradition. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) had risen significantly to $62,754, up 4.72% in 24 hours.

This is accompanied by a 13% increase in trading volume to $32.60 billion as more players participate in the market. The total market capitalization has reached approximately $1.24 trillion. Notably, confidence in the market has increased as BTC continues to rise in its daily range.