Several states have legislative majorities that give one party all power

SHAWNEE, Kansas – After introducing herself at the front door, Vanessa Vaughn West began her pitch to voters with a question: What issues are important to you? She heard disappointment about rising local property taxes, a desire for smaller government and questions about affordable housing.

West is a Democrat running for a second time for a Kansas House seat, representing a western Kansas City district where Republicans have held sway since housing construction began in the late 1990s.

Despite that history, West’s race against Republican Rep. Angela Stiens is on the radar of the national Democratic Party, as well as the Kansas Legislature. Democrats only need to gain two seats in the 125-member House or three in the 40-member Senate to break a supermajority that allowed Republicans to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto of measures restricting abortion providers and transgender rights to override.

A similar battle is taking place in North Carolina, where the loss of a single seat in the House or Senate could cost Republicans a veto-proof majority that has repeatedly imposed its will over the objections of a Democratic governor. In Nevada, however, it is the Democrats who can achieve a veto-proof majority over a Republican governor if they can just gain one more seat in the state Senate without losing one in the Assembly.

Nationwide, more than 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for election this year amid high-profile presidential, congressional and gubernatorial contests. Groups allied with Democrats and Republicans are expected to pour a few hundred million dollars into state legislative battles, with a particular focus on states where control of a chamber is at stake: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But they’re also paying attention to some states where there’s little doubt which party will prevail because there’s still a lot at stake.

The Associated Press identified 14 states where a swing of just three or fewer seats could determine whether a party has a supermajority, that is, without needing the support of lawmakers from an opposing party.

“Having one party in power is really important — the most important thing,” said Wesley Hussey, a political science professor at California State University, Sacramento. But “a supermajority can give you additional tools to implement policy.”

In Kansas, Stiens was tapped to fill a House vacancy this spring to help override Kelly’s veto of a bill requiring abortion providers to ask patients why they want to terminate their pregnancies and that data to be transmitted to the state health department. The law is not enforced despite legal challenges.

But West said lawmakers’ continued push for restrictions on abortion providers is a reason she is running against Stiens, just two years after she narrowly lost to Stiens’ predecessor. West strongly supports abortion rights, and residents of her hometown of Johnson County voted nearly 69% in favor of abortion rights in a crucial statewide vote in 2022.

“That’s why we need parity, right?” West said as she went door-to-door talking to potential voters. “And that’s why we need support for what I would call the voice of the people – to make sure that when the people vote on things like this, we as legislators amplify those feelings with our voices.”

Although still Republican-leaning and largely white, Kansas City’s suburbs have become more racially diverse and friendlier to Democrats since former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. But national Democrats are also targeting a swath of southwest Topeka, a long-time Republican area where Republican state Rep. Jesse Borjon is seeking a third term against Democrat Jacquie Lightcap, a local school board member.

Borjon recently conducted a door-to-door campaign in a neighborhood of late 1980s homes and three-car garages, emphasizing his support for public schools and the tax cuts enacted this year. His vote to eliminate the state income tax on Social Security benefits was well received by Bob Schmidt, a retired computer company executive who chatted with Borjon about rising property taxes.

Regardless of the party name, Schmidt said he wants a representative who “upholds conservative values.”

North Carolina is a clear example of how legislative supermajorities can influence laws.

When North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in 2023, Republicans gained the last seat they needed to gain a veto-proof majority in both legislative chambers. Republicans quickly used their new powers to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of a bill banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Since then, Republicans have passed two dozen more bills by overriding Cooper’s vetoes, including ones that would weaken the governor’s oversight of elections, limit medical treatment and sports activities for transgender youth and restrict school teaching about gender identity in early grades.

“Republicans easily overrode his vetoes and essentially put their stamp on the state in terms of public policy,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury, North Carolina.

Although Cooper’s term is limited, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is leading the race to replace him. That’s why it’s critical for Republicans to maintain a supermajority, “otherwise they’ll have to deal with the governor,” Bitzer said.

According to a study by political scientist Steven Rogers of Saint Louis University, the number of states with legislative supermajorities is at its highest level since at least 1982. Democrats have nine veto-proof majorities. But Republicans hold 20, including in Nebraska, where the unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan but two-thirds of members identify as Republicans.

Democrats need a gain of three or fewer seats in this election to break Republican supermajorities in Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Carolina, while a similar Republican swing will break Democratic supermajorities in Delaware and New York could destroy.

Meanwhile, a gain of three or fewer seats could create new supermajorities for Republicans in Iowa and South Carolina and for Democrats in Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada and New Mexico.

But achieving a supermajority is no guarantee that lawmakers will always get their way.

Democrats dominate in California. Still, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has vetoed numerous bills, none of which have been overridden by the Democratic legislative supermajority. The legislature also failed at times to achieve the two-thirds majority required to pass tax increases.

In Missouri, where Republicans have a supermajority, there have been repeated conflicts between a conservative Senate faction and the Republican leadership. Ultimately, Republicans mired in tensions failed to pass some of their own priority measures.

“A veto-proof majority can matter,” said Ben Williams, deputy director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures. But “the larger a legislative majority becomes, the more factions there are within that majority, and sometimes they don’t necessarily agree.”

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Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.