Five reasons BYU football can beat Arizona

BYU has another great opportunity on Saturday as they host the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are off to a disappointing 3-2 start after being ranked in the top 25 to start the season, but are better than their record suggests. With the Big Noon Kickoff in town and the eyes of the entire nation, this is one of the biggest opportunities for BYU football in the last five seasons. Here are five reasons why I think BYU is answering the call.

Arizona has been vulnerable against the run this season, ranking 91st in yards per carry allowed compared to FBS opponents. Over 18% of opponents’ rush attempts went for at least 10 yards this season. For reference, BYU allows runs of more than 10 yards on just over 12% of runs, and Tyler Allgeier recorded a run of more than 10 yards on 17% of runs for his career. BYU’s rush attack has struggled to get going this year, but if there was ever an opportunity for LJ Martin to return, it would be this week. If Martin returns to his 2023 form, I expect the BYU offense to move the ball as well as it has all season.

Noah Fifita looked nothing like himself in 2023. Arizona fans have been waiting for his breakout game this season, but it hasn’t come outside of Week 1. This season he is completing 61% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has an astounding turnover rate of 8.3% on play-actions and 10% on passes thrown over 10 yards this season. Part of the reason for his struggles is that Arizona isn’t as deep at receiver as it was a year ago.

Tetairoa McMillan is one of the best receivers in the country and Fifita tends to force him to the football even when he’s covered. McMillan scored 36.6% of all goals this season despite being double-marked on almost every play. If BYU can beat McMillan, they have ways to force Fifita to make mistakes. BYU ranks 13th nationally in interceptions forced and 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense. The combination of Fifita and McMillan needs to be respected, but if BYU can take that away, things will be tough for Arizona’s passing game.

Football is a simple game. Most of the time it comes down to who can score when the opportunity arises. BYU was outrebounded by Baylor and Kansas State, but won both games because BYU scored touchdowns on 5 of its 7 redzone trips while allowing only 3 touchdowns on 6 of its opponent’s redzone trips. BYU has scored points on 100% of its redzone trips against FBS opponents this season and scored touchdowns on 13 of 18 redzone trips. On defense, BYU has allowed touchdowns on an incredible 43% of red zone trips this season.

Arizona now ranks 79th in red zone scoring and has scored touchdowns on just 6 of 12 red zone trips this season. This is largely why Arizona hasn’t scored more than 23 points in a game since Week 1. I expect Arizona to move the ball between the 20s, but they will have a hard time beating BYU if they start trading touchdowns for field goals.

I think BYU has the advantage when it comes to scrimmage. Arizona allows pressure on 33% of Noah Fifita’s drop backs, which has contributed to his struggles this season. BYU allowed pressure on just 25% of Jake Retzlaff’s dropbacks despite blitzing 42% of the time. If Retzlaff has more time than Fifita, that’s BYU’s advantage. In the running game, Arizona ranks 95th in defensive run success rate and 90th in offensive run success rate. Arizona does have a solid roster of running backs, but with BYU’s running backs finally healthy, the matchup should be more even.

Any Big12 team will have a hard time coming to Lavell Edwards Stadium and winning. BYU announced its fourth straight sellout since last season, while student tickets for the game sold out in 35 minutes. With the Big Noon Kickoff in town, a loud atmosphere and plenty of 4 and 5 star football and basketball recruits in attendance, the mood is just too good for Arizona to stop as the game rolls towards BYU comes.

forecast

BYU 31-20 Arizona