3 Padres free agents not coming back after NLDS loss and why

The San Diego Padres’ explosive offense remained scoreless in the final 24 innings of their NLDS matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most questioned LA’s ability to compete well into October due to various injuries to the pitching staff, but the Dodgers’ bullpen was electric in consecutive win-or-go-home games.

As Shohei Ohtani and Co. head to the NLCS to battle the New York Mets for a spot in the World Series, San Diego is going back to the drawing board after a campaign that can only be described as successful. Even after letting Blake Snell walk and hitting the reset button with the Juan Soto trade, the Padres managed to hit full speed after the All-Star break. AJ Preller continues to be considered one of the best general managers in baseball, finding unique ways to acquire top talent and spend creatively, even if he doesn’t have approval to hand Soto $600 million.

The Padres were arguably the scariest team left in the NL playoffs, but a poorly timed cold spell sees them go home early. It felt like it was San Diego’s year, but there’s no reason to think the Padres are going anywhere. This team should be back on the October stage in 2025. Baseball is as unpredictable as any major American sport, but this Padres team is rock solid.

However, San Diego’s roster will certainly look a little different next season. Preller has several ineffective agents to juggle, and there’s simply no way the Friars can keep them all. Here are a few that are intended for new teams.

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3. Ha-seong Kim is overpaid elsewhere

Ha-seong Kim has been missing the last few months with a shoulder injury and was a no-show in the Padres’ five-game loss to LA. Now he enters free agency assuming both sides don’t agree to a paltry $7 million reciprocal option. This hasn’t been Kim’s best season at the helm, but he remains valuable at a high-leverage position. Teams will be lining up to sign such a productive shortstop.

In 2023, Kim finished 14th in the NL MVP voting and was a key factor in the Padres’ success. His offensive numbers rose to 403 ABs this season – .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers – but he’s facing a bounce back. His value also goes far beyond hitting. Kim is a dangerous base runner and a true master in the middle infield.

It’s not hard to find contenders in need of upgrades at shortstop. The Braves, Yankees, Tigers — heck, even the Phillies could use some help in center field. And those are just the postseason teams. San Diego would certainly like to bring Kim back, but with Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth providing more than enough production in the midfield and several high-profile young talent emerging, the motivation isn’t quite there.

Despite his struggles this season, Kim remains one of the most disciplined hitters in the MLB. He always has the ball under control, even when he’s not hitting it. The defensive range and arm strength are top notch and Kim is a threat stealing over 30 bases when healthy. Someone who misses out on Willy Adames or a Bo Bichette trade will be left with the bag. Of course, this all depends on how well he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum.

2. Elias Diaz simply has no way of getting consistent playing time in San Diego

The Padres acquired 2023 All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz late in the season after the Colorado Rockies placed him on a full waiver. It was a chance for Diaz to join a contender, but he signed a minor league contract and was never seriously involved in the Padres’ schedule.

Diaz became San Diego’s third catcher behind Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano. Higashioka is also a free agent, so the Padres’ catcher depth chart is a bit wide open, but one would expect San Diego to bring back their everyday starter. Good offensive catchers are a valuable commodity in the league, but Higashioka was an indispensable hitter for the Padres after the season and re-signing him shouldn’t be too expensive.

Even if Higashioka ends up elsewhere, it’s hard to imagine Diaz displacing him in San Diego after being such an afterthought. The 26-year-old Campusano is considered the long-term heir to the Higashioka throne. The 33-year-old Diaz will fully test the free agent waters and land with another contender, likely on a one-year, verifiable deal.

He hit a respectable .265 this season, but Diaz’s offensive numbers were concerning across the board. The veteran has a top time in the 87th percentile and has the experience of calling plays behind home plate, so someone will latch on, but Diaz’s All-Star days are likely in the rearview mirror. He was a great adventurer for San Diego, but it was always meant to be a short stay.

1. Tanner Scott will get the bag and San Diego won’t overspend

There is a fine line between recognizing the value of an elite bullpen and overspending on bullpen weapons. Just ask the Houston Astros, who lost $95 million on Josh Hader in a deal that was destined to be a flop. Tanner Scott arrived at the trade deadline and was outstanding, continuing his dominant All-Star campaign that began with the Miami Marlins.

Scott is probably the best southpaw in the National League. By the time October rolled around, the Padres’ backup team was among the best in baseball. Buying up real assets for Scott in a timely manner is certainly an incentive for San Diego to bring him back, but the bidding war will be dizzying. When you factor in the depth in the Padres’ bullpen – including a perfectly capable closer in Robert Suarez – signs point to Scott ending up elsewhere. At some point, San Diego will emerge from the spending war.

Scott finished his season with a 1.75 ERA and 22 saves in 72 appearances. His performance dipped slightly after the move to San Diego, and it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the 30-year-old’s dominance is after a career full of ups and downs. This is just another reason to accept the loss of trading capital and Scott to land his uncomfortably large order elsewhere. Betting on high leverage relievers can be a dangerous game.

The Padres can always target more bullpen depth at the next trade deadline or find quality arms for less money elsewhere this winter. Scott was a great midseason addition, but with so much emphasis placed on pitching depth across the league, it seems only a matter of time before the Padres get outsold and say goodbye.