The growth trend in Utah continues; State is expected to exceed 4 million by 2033

Utah’s growth is expected to continue in the coming years, although slightly slower than in recent years, increasing by more than 500,000 and expected to exceed 4 million by 2033.

Growth rates “are moderating, and have been for quite some time,” said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah. According to new numbers released this week, Utah’s estimated population of 3.51 million in 2024 is expected to reach 4.03 million by 2033, an annual growth rate of about 1.5%.

The 1.5% figure coincides with annual population growth rates in Utah of about 1.7% between 2020 and 2023, and the lower expected growth rate, Bateman said, is due in part to the state’s larger population base. As numbers rise in Utah, more people are needed to maintain the same growth rate. She also pointed to lower expected birth rates, a national trend.

Despite all of this, the state is expected to grow even as other states’ populations shrink, and the new report cites “Utah’s robust economy” as a key driver. This week’s report comes two years after the Gardner Policy Institute released 40-year population estimates for 2020-2060 in early 2022 and the most recent 10-year report released in 2019.

“Utah’s economy is projected to add 330,000 jobs by 2033, a 13.4% increase from an estimated 2.47 million jobs in 2024,” the report said. New jobs are attracting people to Utah, and the resulting net migration, “historically a smaller share of growth, is expected to be a consistent driver of population growth in Utah,” it said.

The 2034 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games will be one of the most important economic stimuli in the coming years. “Significant economic activity for the Games will begin in 2028,” the report said.

The report also mentions the arrival of a National Hockey League team in Utah, “related construction activity,” and a proposed 0.5% sales tax increase to support upgrades in downtown Salt Lake City.

On a more small scale, Utah County is expected to receive the largest block of new residents among the state’s 29 counties by 2033, with 164,247 residents, which would increase its population to 911,167. Next is Salt Lake County, up nearly 125,000 to 1.36 million; Washington County, up nearly 63,000 to 268,790; Davis County, up 43,000 to 423,820; and Weber County, up more than 27,000 to 299,397.

According to the report, the number of households in Utah is expected to grow at about 2.4% per year between 2024 and 2033, from 1.2 million to more than 1.4 million. According to a statement accompanying the report’s release, the median age is expected to rise from 32.7 to 35.2 years, reflecting “a growing adult population and a declining young population.”