Drake Maye faces a tough challenge in first start against DeMeco Ryans – NBC Sports Boston

FOXBORO — From a distance, it could be easy to say this isn’t the right decision for the Patriots.

Playing Drake Maye this week means pitting him against one of the stingiest defenses and toughest pass-rush units in the league. No team pressures quarterbacks more often than the Texans (42 percent), and only four have a better sack rate (8.6 percent). They rank third in passing yards allowed per game (154.0) and fourth in passing yards allowed per game (4.8).

Yes. Not ideal.

Maye could undoubtedly run for his life. The Patriots have allowed more quarterback pressures than any other team in football this season (48.3 percent). Jacoby Brissett absorbed 49 hits in five weeks, and even though he was a nine-season veteran and had played over 3,600 regular-season snaps, he appeared at times shaken by how often defenders invaded his pockets. His pass protectors allowed a league-high 13.5 percent unlocked Pressure rate, according to NextGen Stats.

But the Patriots’ passing game wasn’t working. They have been looking for answers at receiver, with Tyquan Thornton and KJ Osborn appearing to be secondary players in favor of younger players like Ja’Lynn Polk and Kayshon Boutte. They looked for answers on the offensive line, trading presumptive starter Sidy Sow for recently called-up to the practice squad Michael Jordan and using defensive back Michael Onwenu to play newly acquired tackle Demontrey Jacobs at tackle.

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While the line showed some “progress,” according to Jerod Mayo, in Week 5, the offense stagnated. They now own the fifth-worst offensive EPA per play in the NFL, and only the Browns average fewer yards per pass than New England (3.7).

Combine these continued failures with the preparedness of a young and talented player who is less than five months away from being selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and the Patriots are where they are.

Is it the perfect scenario? No. But the Patriots would argue that there are talented defenders waiting to rattle Maye every week. There is no soft landing point, they would argue.

You also have to consider the buy-in of a locker room that might look a little sideways with a group of decision-makers who seem to prioritize a player’s development – as important as he and his development are – to the well-being of the rest of the team. Especially as a new regime led by Mayo and front office chief Eliot Wolf, it is important to provide evidence of progress to maintain motivation and belief in the direction of the program.

It was not an option for those involved to continue with what was not working. So they turn to the boy, tap him on the shoulder and beg him to kill them. For the benefit of everyone.

Let’s get to the matchups that will determine how Maye’s first start goes…

Matchup that decides the result

Drake Maye vs. DeMeco Ryans

Not only does Maye have the misfortune of facing a pair of excellent edge rushers this week (more on that in a moment), but he’ll also have to deal with Texans coach DeMeco Ryans’ shifting coverages in obvious passing situations. Ask Josh Allen how that worked out for him.

The Bills All-Pro went 9 of 30 for 131 yards (4.4 per attempt) and a touchdown, giving him a paltry quarterback rating of 56.4. On third down, Allen and the Bills melted. He was pressured six times on 13 dropbacks, completing just three passes (23.1 percent) for 27 yards (2.1 per attempt) and a 39.6 rating.

How did Ryans do that? He messes things up while keeping Allen’s legs in check, which may be the basis of his plan for the athletic Maye.

Ryans used Cover 1 on 43 percent of third-down calls and disguised himself with zone looks several times until just before the snap. He also used Cover 2 on 21 percent of third-down plays and typically showed Cover 1 beforehand. He used a full Cover 0 blitz look twice and the Cover 3 zone was used on 14 percent of third downs against Allen.

Tom E. Curran and Phil Perry respond to Alex Van Pelt’s comments on the decision to use Drake Maye and explain why the team isn’t worried about its chances of success against the Texans’ pass rush on Sunday.

Ryans sent five or more rushers only three times – a number that increased against a rookie this weekend – and on six different occasions Ryans used a spy to make sure Allen couldn’t go wild.

Allen couldn’t settle the matter as the Bills only successfully converted three of 14 third downs that day. But he ran for 54 yards on four attempts, and there’s a chance Maye can damage Ryan’s defensive structure by getting on his horse. For Houston, controlling the running quarterbacks was a problem. They are allowing 8.4 yards rushing per quarterback this season (second-worst in the NFL).

It will be Maye’s job to understand what he sees when he is forced to drop back on third down. Easier said than done. The pressure is also on Alex Van Pelt to not only help Maye get through these difficult-to-execute scenarios, but prevent him from doing so altogether by providing a solid early-down plan. Without them, this could quickly get out of control.

A matchup that will surprise you

CJ Stroud vs. Patriots DBs

Thanks to CJ Stroud and his team of pass catchers, the Texans have been efficient offensively this season. Despite having the ninth-worst pressure rate in football (37.0 percent), they rank ninth in EPA per pass played. Stroud proved particularly effective against man-to-man coverage, according to NextGen Stats, completing 24 of his 31 attempts for 283 yards and three scores. This 9.1 yards per attempt against man is the third best in the NFL.

What, then, will be surprising about Stroud’s upcoming matchup with the Patriots’ defensive backs? Well, without top wideout Nico Collins, the Texans could be vulnerable in man-to-man matchups. Collins was arguably the most productive wideout in football to this point in the season, ranking first in yards per route run (3.6). But he’s now on injured reserve because of a hamstring issue, giving everyone a spot on the Texans receiving depth chart.

Stefon Diggs can certainly still play. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is averaging 2.4 yards per route run against man this season, which ranks 31st in the NFL. But if Christian Gonzalez can limit him in those one-on-one situations, does Houston have enough to hurt the Patriots through the air elsewhere?

Tank Dell, who had a standout rookie season in 2023 before getting injured, is averaging just 0.9 yards per route run against man (95th in the NFL) and 1.0 yards per route run against everyone Coverages (103rd). Robert Woods (124th in yards per route run) and Xavier Hutchinson (111th) also haven’t done much to scare opponents this year. Tight end Dalton Schultz ranks 25th at his position in receiving yards this year (116).

The Patriots have the fifth-highest Cover 1 rate in the NFL on passing plays (30 percent), so we should expect a fair amount of Gonzalez on Diggs, with Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones likely getting the most chances against Dell.

Houston isn’t used to seeing a lot of man-to-man play when fully healthy, as there aren’t many teams that can keep up with both Collins and Diggs. (Houston posts the second-highest rate of Cover 2 coverage this season, behind only Miami and its dynamic receiving duo.) But without their No. 1, the Texans could see a new approach at Gillette Stadium, meaning the Patriots have a chance to frustrate They have one of the best young quarterbacks in football on Sunday.

A matchup that will take years off your life

Texans beat rushers against Patriots tackles

Here’s a matchup for the Patriots that should be helped by Mayes’ move into the starting lineup. Pass rushers against a mobile quarterback usually need to be a little more disciplined, which is what a sack artist like Danielle Hunter has established herself as one of the best at her position because of her ability to move the field with outstanding athleticism – means that – He may need to make sure he doesn’t run past the quarterback and open up an escape lane.

But even with Hunter’s ear-back-and-go approach tempered, this is a daunting matchup. According to Pro Football Focus, Hunter and sophomore standout Will Anderson combined for 42 pressures (21 each) this season, placing both in the top 10 at their position in their respective categories.

Vederian Lowe was impressive in Week 5 against Miami, not allowing a single pressure in 41 pass blocking reps. But he and Jacobs will be tasked with doing everything they can to prevent Hunter and Anderson from ruining Mayes’ first start. Big task.

Prediction: Texans 24, Patriots 20